The old stock market cliché "sell in May, and go away" had so far proved untrue this year. Instead, it is the bond market -- so often perceived as steady, low risk and dependable -- that has bitten investors. In fact, June was one of the worst months for bonds in many years. The declines were steep enough to serve as an acute reminder that nothing, and I do mean nothing, in the financial world is without risk.
Read moreIgnore the Markets (and the Fed), the Economy Is Doing Fine
You could be forgiven for missing the latest installment of market panic over the past ten days. It came and went like a summer thunderstorm -- passing over the global financial landscape quickly and violently. But unlike meteorological events that inflict actual harm, the sharp gyrations of financial markets have increasingly less relationship to real-world economies and exist in their own never-never land of self-fulfilling prophecies and conventional wisdom.
Read moreAmericans' Fickle Stance on Data Mining and Surveillance
As the week continues, so does the furor over the government's electronic and big data surveillance. It's largely framed in the terms that President Obama described on June 7th: "You can't have 100 percent security and also then have 100 percent privacy and zero inconvenience." That observation may be true, but we are approaching this issue 100 percent wrong.
Read moreDo American Politicians Even Care About the Rise of China Anymore?
This weekend, President Obama and China's new leader Xi Jinping will meet at a retreat outside of Los Angeles. The two men are scheduled to spend six to seven hours covering a range of issues that confront the two countries, from the increasingly fraught issue of hacking
Read moreThe Lady Gaga Fix: How the U.S. Is Rethinking GDP for the 21st Century
This week the government released yet another revision of first-quarter economic growth showing that the U.S. economy grew a tad less than initially reported ‑- 2.4 percent rather than 2.5 percent. This revision was hardly consequential, but over the summer the Bureau of Economic Analysis will unveil a new way to calculate the overall output of the United States. And that revision will be dramatic.
Read moreAre Today's App Companies Amusing Us to Death or Building the Future?
The national conversation of late has revolved around a trio of Washington scandals, a weather disaster, and the seesaw views in financial markets about whether crisis looms. Yet for all their prominence, none are as tied to trends that will shape our collective future as the myriad of events that took place this week in New York City under the banner of "Internet Week."
Read moreCollege Is Going Online, Whether We Like It Or Not
The United States has a problem: rapidly rising student debt. It also has a solution: online education. The primary reason for spiraling student debt is the soaring costs of a college education at a physical college. Online education strips away all of those expenses except for the cost of the professor's time and experience. It sounds perfect, an alignment of technology, social need and limited resources. So why do so many people believe that it is a deeply flawed solution?
Read moreOnline Sales Taxes: A Good Idea Done Badly
On Monday, by a comfortable 69-27 majority, the U.S. Senate passed a controversial bill that will require online retailers with annual sales of more than $1 million to collect state sales taxes. Said Republican Mike Enzi of Wyoming: "This bill is about fairness. It's about leveling the playing field between the brick-and-mortar and online companies, and it's about collecting a tax that's already due. It's not about raising taxes."
Read moreIn Defense of High Corporate Profits
Over the past month, America's largest companies reported their earnings for the first quarter of the year. These quarterly reports provide as much insight into our economy as any of our leading indicators. And these results, if read correctly, highlight once again the bifurcated world we live
Read moreAfter Boston, a new, more balanced outrage
Events unfolded rapidly in Boston this week, from the bombing on Monday to release of photos of the suspects on Thursday to the citywide manhunt for one brother and the killing of the other. While we now know that the two young men are ethnic Chechens who spent time in Kyrgyzstan, we know nothing as yet about why they did what they did.
Read moreThe 'Laws of Economics' Don't Exist
In a world increasingly framed by economic debates, the phrase "the laws of economics" has become ever more prevalent. As the U.S. Senate prepares to unveil a new immigration bill, much of the discussion centers on the economics of illegal immigration and the incentives for employers to hire undocumented workers.
Read moreDavid Stockman and the Cult of Gloom
We think of spring as a time of cherry blossoms and renewed hope, as we slough off the depths of winter and ease into the warmer months. These bright days seem a strange time to encounter the by-now widely circulated warnings of impending doom by Ronald Reagan's budget director, and current gadfly, David Stockman.
Read moreDon't Fear the 'Frankenfish': Why Rich Americans Should Drop Their War on Genetically Modified Foods
While tiny Cyprus teeters on the brink, dominating much of the news, and elusive peace in the Middle East remains in the headlines, there is another battle going on -- the latest in a long war that is shaping our planet far more than the events in Nicosia or the West Bank. Food and water are essential to human existence, yet in the last few decades the ability to increase food supply by technological means has stirred fear and passion. Cyprus' woes may come and go; the food wars are going nowhere.
Read moreWhy Paul Ryan's Budget Matters
Paul Ryan unveiled the House Republican budget this week with an ominous yet familiar warning: "America's national debt is over $16 trillion." Having stated the problem, he then offered a solution, one which differed only marginally from what he's offered the past two years. Namely: restrain government healthcare spending on Medicare and Medicaid, reform the individual tax code, close loopholes, lower corporate taxes, and promote natural gas and energy independence. The goal? A balanced budget by 2023 that will ensure "the well-being of all Americans...and reignite the American dream."
Read moreIf You Want a Strong U.S. Economy, You Should Be Rooting for China
Is China about to collapse? That question has been front and center in the past weeks as the country completes its leadership transition and after the exposure of its various real estate bubbles during a widely-watched 60 Minutes exposé this past weekend.
Read moreThe Black Swan Sequester
Everyday, we are treated to a new peril: Today we have sequestration, a word not much in anyone's lexicon until recently. The mandated cuts to the federal budget, $85 billion by last count, will further stunt anemic economic growth, or so economists and the Congressional Budget Office guesstimate.
Read moreIs the U.S. Turning Into Japan? We Should Be So Lucky
Over the past few years, it's become ever more common to hear comparisons between the United States and Japan. They are not favorable. They come in the form of dark warnings that the current policies of the United States will lead to a fate similar to Japan's over the past 20 years: stagnant growth with no end in site.
Read moreThe Era of Big Government Is Still Over
President Barack Obama made the middle class the focus of his State of the Union address on Tuesday. He was lauded by some as fighting for jobs and opportunity, and even for launching a "war on inequality" equivalent to President Lyndon B. Johnson's 1960s War on Poverty. He was assailed by others for showing his true colors as a man of big government and wealth redistribution.
Read moreEurope's Doomsdayers Were Wrong in 2010, 2011, and 2012—and They're Wrong Today
After a pleasant lull over the past six months, panic over the fate of Europe has flared once again. Just weeks ago the elites of Davos exuded confidence that the crisis had passed; the events of the past weeks showed how ephemeral such certainty can be.
Read moreThe Kickstarter Economy: How Technology Turns Us All Into Bankers
As the U.S. jobs market continues its slow, not-very-impressive-but-nonetheless-forward march, one area of the economy still lags. Banks have only very recently begun to lend. Both individuals and small businesses have faced tight credit standards enforced by risk-averse banks; mortgages have been hard to obtain, and small business credit has been tighter yet.
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