Zachary Karabell Discusses Flaws of Relying On Leading Economic Indicators

Zachary Karabell recently appeared on The Stu Taylor Show to discuss his new book, The Leading Indicators:  A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World. The author of 11 previous books, Karabell has written for Reuters and The Atlantic, and regularly provides commentary on CNBC and MSNBC.  A successful money manager, Karabell is the Head of Global Strategy at Envestnet, and the President or River Twice Research and River Twice Capital.

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The Youth Unemployment Crisis Might Not Be a Crisis

There’s no doubting that worldwide, kids are out of work. In the United States alone, the unemployment rate for 15 to 24-year-olds is about 16 percent, nearly twice the national average. In parts of Europe, the figures are much worse, with a whopping 56 percent youth unemployment rate in Spain alone — representing about 900,000 people. But do these high numbers represent a global labor market crisis that imperils future growth, as the headlines warn? Maybe not. Maybe instead, they’re evidence of a generation of college graduates determined not to settle, which bodes well for our future.

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Fear Itself

As of today, the global financial system is gripped by panic. In the past two weeks since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the fear and chaos have accelerated dramatically, and the failure of Congress to pass its proposed $700 bailout bill on Monday unleashed a new wave of panic. That is the situation we find ourselves in now, with safe havens almost non-existent save for those betting against the market completely, or who have retreated to cash. Relief rallies notwithstanding, this is a market in the grip of animal spirits, and the stampede is heading for the exits.

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THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

You've heard the story. On the heels of tumbling shares and dire warnings from the U.S. president, as well as business and government officials across the globe, the British prime minister says, "The world economy is facing its greatest risk in decades." To halt the slide, he calls for a global response to prevent the crisis from spiraling out of control.

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